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The ‘Old Man’ and the Treasure Hunt – Redux

Yesterday, I wrote of a business strategy lesson that I have learned and applied throughout my career. It’s a lesson that can be variously be described as – ‘Listen to your elders’, but in 2018, the lesson could be taught slightly differently. In 2018, the ‘Old Man’ could be replaced, or at least complimented with data.

(The rest of this article wont mean much without reading the initial piece!!)

In the game, teams could choose to miss a turn and consult with the ‘Old Man’ in the town before venturing into the desert. Slowing down and creating a strategy based on insight gave teams a much better chance of avoiding sand-storms and therefore completing the mission successfully.

The game consists of about 30 turns. Imagine 10 days out into the desert, a few days collecting treasure, and then 10 day return journey. While the teams that consulted the old man knew that there was a sandstorm every three days, those playing the game and collecting data about the patterns of the storms, may have been able to adapt their strategy.

I believe that there is still a place for the wise old man, but I also believe that the wise old man can never know as much as an AI that has access to Big Data sources. In fact – recent games between computers and masters have shown that a computer will more often than not beat a human, but a computer and a human playing together will more often than not beat a computer.

It’s an ideological shift that many in business are not ready for, but those who ignore the benefits of data based strategy and decision making will lose.  Equally, those that believe that they can be ‘lazy’ and not constantly evolve their use of data and rule based processes will also not do as well as those who use both experience and data together.

Take internet advertising as an example. The ability to serve a targeted ad at the most cost efficient price has existed for nearly two decades. With the increase in usage of smart-phones and social media, marketers have a large amount of data to enable segmentation, and even personalisation. But the vast majority of online marketing is still pretty basic – using only one or two data points like gender or location to contextualise messaging.

The sales pitch, from the ‘Marketing Cloud’ vendors, email service providers and social advertising agencies would lead us to believe that dropping a cookie on a customer’s computer while they browse an e-commerce site will unlock huge gains in conversion and loyalty, however what is often overlooked is the resources required to feed a marketing campaign with hundreds or thousands of  contextualised stories or offers.

If the management strategy game was to be updated for 2018, it should add a new choice at the beginning. Do you want to take a Data Scientist with you on your mission? It will cost you 1 food and 1 water each day, however the Data Scientist will give you insights that will allow you to adapt your strategy.

If in 1997, you decided to rush off into the desert without consulting the old man, you deserved to lose. In 2018, if you rush off into the desert without a Data Scientist as part of your team, you are destined for similar disaster.

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